A new July 2015 study covering 10 years and nearly 300,000 people has a message straight from Hollywood for weight loss and fitness professionals who rave about their success stories of creating “lifestyle change” by recommending their overweight and obese clients attempt to follow restrictive diets or forced exercise:
The time for honoring yourself will soon be at an end…
—Maximus, from Gladiator
Let’s go ahead and add the music for dramatic effect:
Table 2 below should be a required disclosure given to every person with a BMI over 25 before being allowed to enroll in weight loss or fitness program.
“Table 2 shows the frequency of transitioning to normal body weight during up to 9.9 years follow-up after the first BMI record. During a maximum of 9 years’ follow-up, 1283 men and 2245 women (out of 278,982) attained normal body weight records.”
Probability of an Obese Person Attaining Normal Body Weight: Cohort Study Using Electronic Health Records American Jrnl of Public Health July 2015
DO THEY EVEN LIE ABOUT THE TRUTH?
Success Rate Calculation:
3528 total of those achieving normal body weight / 278,982 total in study = 1.2%
But a more careful reading of the study shows that 1.2% success rate is likely WAY too high–back to table two:
Look again at the reality of how few achieved a normal body weight DURING the 10 year period. Now consider that there’s no info confirming that weight STAYED OFF.
Table 2 shows the frequency of transitioning to normal body weight during up to 9.9 years follow-up…
There is no mention of confirming the normal body weight was sustained.
While it’s never directly stated (purposely?), here’s the smoking gun that the study is only tracking losing the weight, not ensuring it’s kept off:
Although the probability of patients achieving a 5% reduction in body weight was considerably higher, the majority of these patients went on to regain lost weight, as evidenced by BMI records of greater than 95% of the initial value, within 2 to 5 years of the first record (where have you heard that before!!) that was lower than 95% of the initial value
BOTTOM LINE: Best case to achieve normal body weight over 10 years is an “annual probability” (whatever that is):
between 1 in 124 to 1 in 1290
using conventional “lifestyle change” diet strategies of restrictive diets and or forced exercise. Odds of LASTING success over 10 years are more likely in line with our prior posts:
ONE MORE CRITICAL TAKEAWAY – CLASS ACTION LAWSUIT COMING?
Here’s one more quote from the study that weight loss and fitness professionals might want to consider in their future recommendations when they take on a new client:
We observed reductions in BMI category more frequently among patients with a higher baseline BMI, but these decreases were more likely to be followed by subsequent increases than further decreases or stability in BMI category….Weight cycling has been linked to a higher risk of morbidity and mortality than has stable obesity 16—18 although evidence of causality remains inconclusive.19
Instead of fighting for soda taxes and banning of GMOs or food groups, the data clearly support the need for the weight loss and fitness industry to fully disclose the greater likelihood of weight GAIN than weight loss over 10 years before they sign up a new overweight or obese client.
When the tens of millions of overweight and obese people realize that science is proving a quantifiable portion of their weight gain and reduced health is conclusively backed by clinical research to be a direct result of the recommendations made by the professionals they have entrusted to help them, the odds of a class action lawsuit against all involved seem inevitable.
OBESITY DUE TO SUGAR OR ANY FOOD GROUP IS NOT THE “NEW SMOKING”, PUSHING LIFESTYLE CHANGES WITH RESTRICTIVE DIETING AND FORCED EXERCISE IS.
EET Fitness recognized the harm being done by the weight loss and fitness industry SIX YEARS AGO when the 2009 NEJM “Study of Studies” data made it clear. That study has been confirmed by every study before and since, and this new study over a huge population is the ultimate confirmation.
This study is part of a growing body of compelling evidence that the Weight Loss and Fitness Industry’s recommendations that you must force a “lifestyle change” of food restriction and forced exercise are not the solution for our obesity and health crises:
THEY ARE THE PROBLEM.
NOTE: This information is in no way a recommendation to attempt a diet of any sort–it’s for information and education purposes only. Readers assume all risk with their weight loss and fitness efforts–See disclaimer below for more.
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